Operational Algorithms to Decrease the Impact of Condensation Trails on Radiative Forcing

Investigator:

• Mahesh Nagarajan, Operations and Logistics Division

Co-investigator:

• Steven Schechter, Operations and Logistics Division

Background

Condensation trails, or contrails, form when aircraft exhaust interacts with cold, humid air at high altitudes, creating ice-crystal clouds that trap heat. Although short-lived, contrails are one of aviation’s largest non-CO2 contributors to global warming and account for an estimated 1.8–2% of global radiative forcing. Research shows that a small proportion of flights generate most contrail-related warming and that targeted flight adjustments could significantly mitigate this impact. Yet operational, economic, and policy barriers have limited adoption of contrail-avoidance strategies across the aviation sector.

Research Objectives

This project develops and tests operational algorithms that use atmospheric forecasts and optimization models to identify low-cost rerouting strategies that minimize contrail formation. Working with industry partners, the research will evaluate the feasibility, cost implications, and climate benefits of real-time contrail-avoidance decision tools. The goal is to enable scalable operational changes that substantially reduce aviation’s short-term warming effects.